Quantum Computing Will Change Our Lives. But Be Patient, Please

“This bubble of inflated promises will eventually burst.

It’s just a matter of time.”

There are signs she’s right.

Large-scale, powerful quantum computers remain years away.

But progress is encouraging, because it’s getting harder to squeeze more performance out of conventional computers.

Quantum computing executives and researchers are acutely aware of the risks of a quantum winter.

In Q2B interviews, several said they’re working to avoid AI’s early problems being overhyped.

“Everyone talks about the AI winter,” said Alex Keesling, CEO of quantum computer makerQuEra.

“What did we learn?

Qubits can record combinations of zeros and ones through a concept called superposition.

Qubits are easily disturbed, spoiling calculations and therefore limiting the number of possible operations.

Quantum computing calculations typically are run over and over many times to obtain a statistically useful result.

Today’s machines are members of the NISQ era: noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers.

It’s still not clear whether such machines will ever be good enough for work beyond tests and prototyping.

That’s when the true quantum computing benefits arrive, likely five or more years from now.

Quantum computing hype

Quantum computing faces plenty of challenges on the way to maturity.

One of them is hype.

The technology could be big and disruptive, and that piqued the interest of investors.

First wasIonQ in October 2021, followed byRigetti Computing in MarchandD-Wave Systems on August.

The markets have been unkind to technology companies in recent months, though.

IonQ is trading at half its debut price, and D-Wave has dropped about three quarters.

Rigetti, trading at about a 10th of its initial price, islosing its founding CEOon Thursday.

Although quantum computer startups haven’t failed, some mergers indicate that prospects are rosier if teams band together.

But the reality is that quantum computing hype isn’t generally rampant.

Comments thatquantum computing will be “bigger than fire"are the exception, not the rule.

Instead, advocates prefer to point to a reasonable track record of steady progress.

Other roadmaps from companies like Quantinuum and IBM are equally detailed.

And new quantum computing efforts keep cropping up.

Some startups are seeing the frosty investment climate.

But he’s more sanguine about the situation since he’s not looking for investors right now.

But startup difficulties wouldn’t cause a quantum winter, Quantinuum Chief Operating Officer Tony Uttley believes.

The quantum computing industry isn’t putting all its eggs in one basket.

Various designs include trapped ions, superconducting circuits, neutral atoms, electrons on semiconductors and photonic qubits.

I do see the path to doing it.”